Maldives is a small nation in the Indian Ocean, south of Lakshadweep and Sri Lanka. Consisting of a series of Atolls, Maldives is rightly said the – the Indian Ocean’s beauty.
A brief look into the demographics suggests Maldives to be a Muslim dominated democratic Polity with Liberal Presidential form of Government. Further, Maldivian economy is primarily based on Tourism with Tourism generating as much as 73% of Country’s GDP. The country and Society practices Secularism although Fundamentalism has seen a rise in recent years, particularly after the 1988 Army coup which fortunately got averted.
In the international Fora, Maldives is predominantly, a member of IORA and SAARC and shares genuine concerns on Piracy, Terrorism and Economic Development along with India.
In the past though, Maldives saw some upheavals on its grounds when the Former President was forced to take shelter inside the Indian Embassy in February 2013. The story dates back to February 2012 when President Nasheed was ousted on charges of abusing his power after his win in 2008. The media described the move as an attempt to revert back to a dictatorship regime under the former ruler Guyoom. However, the courts issued warrants against Nasheed who was forced to take refuge within Indian Embassy. In the interim, multiple attempts were made to conduct elections but every time, things seemed to be moving on, media would come up with either SC Judges or the Police ‘hand-in-glove’ with each other delaying the elections. In fact, the 3rd Election Contestant Qasim Ibrahim is alleged to have saved the SC Judge who was accused in one of the scandals in Maldives. The SC judge was reportedly part of the panel which quashed the September elections terming the Electorate List ‘unfair’ and ‘incomplete’. However the November 16, run-off elections led Yameen take over as the New President of Maldives.
As soon as Yameen became President, within 50 days of his office he made his first foreign visit to no country other than India. The coming of the President gave India the impetus to bring forth the long pending issue of the presence of the Chinese on Maldivian Soil which has been a worrisome factor for India as far as securing the Coastal Boundaries and EEZs are concerned. Further, the Visit helped India raise the GMR issue wherein the Previous Waheed Government had sacked GMR’s contract for building a New Airport Terminal at Male with Millions of Dollars hanging in balance.
Anyhow, the President’s assurance of checking the Chinese presence was a welcome step in January as Yameen’s visit in itself helps India restore ties after relations sunk to a new low after the 2013 crisis. India and Maldives share good terms for the fact that India helped Maldives avert a Possible Coup in 1988 thereby saving Maldives from going down the hands of Dictators and Fundamentalists.
The visit secured for Maldives a 3 years quota of Agriculture Products, mainly cereals and cooking oil within the provided quota of 25 million dollars of Lines of Credit. This may be considered a smart move by India since this helps secure terms with Maldives on the Security front at least geographically. Further agreements were signed on better connectivity, and investments. India agreed o train Maldivian Police and Forces (as is agreed with Afghans). Another area was maritime security where both nations emphasized the strengthening of the India-Maldives-Sri Lanka Trilateral dialogue mechanism that has been taking place over the years.
However, there are multiple concerns for India on multiple fronts. India has not treated Maldives alike Bhutan thereby leaving voids in its policies which were quickly exploited by US and China and now more and more US and Chinese investments are sinking into Maldives endangering the Indian Coastal waters in the south. Again the talks between the two nations have more been at the highest political level and the Track 2.0 and Track 1.5 dialogues are almost absent wherein the issues could be discussed steadfastly and agendas could be prepared for Political meetings. Further, despite assurances, the Maldivian Government has neither helped India mitigate its Chinese phobia nor it has solved the GMR issue. The delayed trials of GMR case has only led Indian investments pull back from Maldives which is allowing the neighbours, especially the Chinese to catch up fast in the arena.
Amidst all, new opportunities prevail though. India may provide development assistance to Maldives, at least on the Climate Change and Global Warming front. With Indian industries’ expertise, India may set up a Petroleum Refinery unit in Maldives which Maldives has long been insisting on. More people-to-people contacts would help as Maldivians are fond of India culture, cuisine and Films.
It’s up to the new government in the both the nations to take things forward. However, the current trends show the talks shall contribute to find place mainly through SAARC and IORA hindering the enormous potential of cooperation.
Chirag Goel's Blog 